The 2018-2019 Federal Budget: A Retrospective

Thu 7 June 2018

Does the Budget provide a sufficient fiscal buffer against possible external economic and geo-political shocks? Can it withstand the inevitable normalisation of global interest rates that remain at historic lows following the Global Financial Crisis more than a decade ago? Should tax cuts be prioritised over fiscal repair, or will lower taxes provide the incentive for stronger growth? How realistic are the Budget’s assumptions about wages growth? What does it matter if they turn out to be wrong?

Our panel of expert presenters offered answers to these and other relevant questions.

11.00am Registrations open and refreshments served

11.30am Dr Stephen Anthony, Chief Economist, Industry Super Australia

Stephen will discuss the results of his modelling on the sensitivity of the Budget bottom line to variations in key parameters, including wages, GDP, productivity and commodity prices.

11.40am Dr Janine Dixon, Senior Research Fellow, Centre of Policy Studies, Victoria University

Janine will present modelling of the key structural drivers required to achieve Budget projections, and in light of Dr Anthony's results, will identify possible sources of risk to the Budget outlook.

11.50am Professor Guay Lim, Head of the Macroeconomics Research Program, Melbourne Institute, University of Melbourne

Guay will discuss the fiscal policy assumptions and priorities underpinning the Budget.

12.00pm Danielle Wood, Budget Policy and Institutional Reform Program Director, Grattan Institute

Danielle will present Grattan modelling on the cost and distributional impacts of the Government's seven year Personal Income Tax Plan and discuss the economic case for personal income tax reform.

12.10pm Forum open for discussion

2.00pm Forum concludes

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